Friday, 26 April 2013

27th April

Been a very busy week for me hence the reason I've not been on here for a few days, I can't see that changing to be honest so I will have to make do with getting on and looking at the racing when I do get a bit of free time!

I missed most of the Punchestown festival but I did take not of the price of Quvega (!) unbelieveable that she was allowed to go off as long as she did and had I noticed soon enough she would have been a max bet cest la vie.

Earlier in the week Ayesha was unlucky not to finish in the places and ran well above her odds, she actually drifted which enhanced the value for anyone who likes to trade like I do, from memory I think she reached a reasonably low price in relation to her BSP but never threatened to win but the price was low enough to be able to nick a few quid. Aqua Arden on the same day ran a shocker, I mentioned about him being bread for longer so in essence it was a bit of a long shot as I see something that clearly wasn't there. It could be that they are trying to sharpen him up a bit over short distances and then have another go at a trip that should suit.

Looking on to tomorrow then...

Xinbama too the eye in his last race at lingfield when only beaten by a head and a neck when given a lot to do, he is still fairly unexposed and could progress this year. He is on the same mark as his last win which was also on turf at Haydock on good to firm ground so the conditions look to suit. The only slight worry is the trip but he did enough last time in a race he could have won over the trip on a different surface and has placed over further so I think my worry is unjust. He gives me the impression that he is a spring/summer horse as all of his places and 3 wins have come at this time of year too.
There isn't a lot of juice in the price but I prefer him to current favourite Paramour who was 7lb better off lto with a claimer on board when he finished 4th.
Of the rest Cono Zur looks handicapped to win now and likes it here but didn't show enough last time to encourage me to bet that tomorrow is the day to be on. At the odds Xinbama it is...

17:55 Haydock
Xinbama 1pt Win 9/2

Friday, 19 April 2013

20th April

Ayasha certainly outrun her odds at Ripon, she looks like the one to take from the race as she has now proved that she can hold her own at this level on turf, I think if they can find her a fillies handicap somewhere she is a winner in waiting, only a neck as the difference between making a profit on the race and losing our the stake but I hope the ones that do go in far outweigh the ones we are unlucky on like yesterday, the result could actually be interpreted as better than the bare result as she was 2nd in her group on the far side. I'll keep an eye out for her.

Looking at Saturday I find it most strange that George Baker is trying Aqua Ardens at 5f when he was tried at 8f last time out and eased home in what looks like an attempt to reduce the OR. He was rated 77 on his handicap debut but that mark looked very stiff and has since dropped to 62 which now looks workable as he now qualifies for a 0-65 for the first time on turf. He showed promise two starts back when 3rd at Lingfield when returning from a break and is not fully exposed. 16/1 looks big and as it stands 4 places will be paid out, a tongue tie is applied for the first time which is promising as he could improve for it. He is bred for further but he is not a horse that struggles for speed. He likes to race up with the pace and as there are a couple who like to race from the front in this his stamina could come in to play.
I could be completely wrong but I'll take the chance at what looks like a decent price for a horse that placed in the only 0-65 contest he has raced.

18:00 Nottingham
Aqua Ardens 0.75pt EW 16/1

In the 17:45 Thirsk Azzura Du Caprio is interesting returning from a break, she won returning from a break last year and finished 3rd on her debut as a 2yo so it is safe to assume that she goes well fresh (!) now rated 75 she is 8lbs lower than her last win and faces the lowest grade competition she has ever faced. On the face of it 20/1 looks massive but we have to hope she is fit. She is better than this.

17:45 Thirsk
Azurra Du Caprio 0.5pt EW 20/1

Wednesday, 17 April 2013

18th April

Cracking days racing today but I missed all of it in favour of watching Thomas the tank engine (!)

By the sounds of it Hot Snap was most impressive at Newmarket coming from last to first to win in a decent time, be interesting to see his topspeed rating after that, he is now 8/1 for the 1,000 Guineas. I have all racing recorded and look forward to seeing Cheltenham highlights as I backed the Venitia Williams trained Lower Hope Dandy at 16/1 after noting her goo performance in this meeting in recent years although last year she had none turn out, made my day even at the small stake I played!

Portmonarch ran a shocker on Monday but was easy to back all morning, an early price of 3/1 was too much for me to resist and it eventually started at 11/8 and showed nothing to justify that price. The application of cheek pieces was a slight worry and also the fact that the trainer had said the horse could be a little lazy but it would have proved a good trading opportunity if anyone would have got on at that early price as it was clear to see withing 30 mins of the early show that he would be backed all day. I imagine that he will run a big race at some point this year but entries to the Dante and Derby look a little far fetched to say the least at this point. He may strengthen up this summer but there were no real reasons for him to run such a poor race in what looks like being an ordinary maiden.

There was nibble at Solemn just before the off but he too ran another shocking race, probably wasn't fit or is just a shit horse?! He took the race from the front last year but I could see straight away that this wasn't going to be his race after a slowish start covered up by the entire field (!) He will obviously drop another couple of lbs for that run but like most low class handicappers is proving difficult to read, if and when Liam Keniry is back on board then he may be worth another chance as his last 5 wins have come with him in the saddle.

On to Thursday then...

17:05 Ripon
Aysha 0.5pt EW 14/1

Aysha can be forgiven for the last run after being hampered badly and actually did quite well in the circumstances to make up as much ground as she did, over the winter she has been unlucky a couple of times in fact after being hampered in running and had been noted as one that could win on the AW but due to the problems noted above that never materialised. She was rated at 70 last season on turf after a good all the way win in a Redcar maiden, the RPR that she has received definitely suggest that she will be up to winning off the current mark of 66 and she is drawn well also, I think she will outrun her odds in this.

Sunday, 14 April 2013

Monday 15th April

One horse that interests me is running tomorrow but I'm as yet undecided whether to have a financial interest. The horse in question is David Lanigans Portmonarch and it runs at one of my local tracks Windsor in the 16:20 race.
Based on the RP analysis of the race he doesn't appear to be that spectacular and they had this to say about the Galileo colt
"Portmonarch showed ability over this trip on soft turf on his second start and did so again. He might win an ordinary maiden, but he´s now qualified for a handicap mark and looks the type to progress given time."
Doesn't really get the juices flowing does it?
When we look a bit deeper though we find out that he is a $525,000 purchase as a yearling and the trainer gave him rave reviews (should think so at the price) in Steve Taplins book Two Year Olds of 2012. David had said that the horse was a very good looking and attractive horse but he was also very big and backward, September was the aim for him and he went on to run three time between then and October. All three runs were over a mile but he still looked very big and hadn't filled out his massive frame so it would be fair to say that he was still too weak to show justification in the hefty purchase price. The fact that he ran creditably in the last two runs without setting the world alight bodes well for the chances of him this year if he has indeed filled out his large frame and appreciates this step up in trip.
The thing that takes the eye this time is that he is stepped up to 10f tomorrow and being that Galileo has a big stamina influence he should be better suited to the trip than he was at a mile last year. The other thing that takes the eye is the fact that he is the only horse in the field with a Group 1 entry and has been entered into this years Derby and the Group 2 Dante Stakes in May. He will need a bold showing tomorrow to make either of those races and it certainly rubbishes the opinion of the RP analysis team that he "might win an ordinary maiden". I would suggest that if he is fit then he wins but I'll wait for prices to be advertised before I make a decision as to whether to play or not.

Of the rest of tomorrows card Arc Light could be interesting now back in handicap company after a decent showing in a recent maiden at an each way price (15:30 Newcastle).

At Windsor I think Solemn will outrun his 14/1 Odds currently with William Hill, he finished 3rd when returning to the track this time last year at the same course and looked the winner until being outpaced in the final furlong. The soft ground will do him no harm as his last win was on the same going at Sandown rated 1lb higher than now. So we are not asking the horse to do anything that it hasn't already done before and at the available odds I'll play to a small stake.

14:50 Windsor
Solemn 0.5pt EW 14/1 WH, 12/1 VC

Good luck.

An education continued

Good afternoon,

Been about a year since I last posted and I often wonder to myself how long these little adventures will last before the extremities of life takes over or I simply lose interest in favour of doing other things.
It is quite odd for me to be honest because I enjoy watching the sport so much more in the winter as it all leads up to the Cheltenham festival before it all comes to a close (in my eyes at least) at Aintree's grand national. However, saying that, the excitement overtakes me at this time of year as I know that the flat season being in full swing is upon us and I know that betting opportunities and trading on betfair are far more for me and my style of gambling.

I have missed the game so much in the last year but I have needed the break, following tipsters in the past has left a sort of mental scar with me as I have become so cynical over any tip that reaches me nowadays so I've not really had a decent bet until recently.
In the last year I have found a settled home and family life, improved myself and prospects at work which has come along with earning more money (win!). General happiness and the ways things are going in life have improved ten fold so it is safe to say that it has been a rather productive year since I decided to turn my back on gambling and tipping on here or to friends etc.
The hole it has left in my life is noticeable now though as I used to do this for enjoyment which was sort of lost on me back when I was last blogging as I found it a chore to look for betting opportunities each evening and being honest most of the time I had other things on my mind.

Now though I am ready to give this another go and use this blog as first intended, as another medium in which to express myself and recontinue my apprenticeship in successfully backing horses for a profit.

I have in the last couple of weeks familiarised myself with things and I have a list of horses to follow over the coming months, they aren't necessarily the type of horse that I am used to backing but being honest my stakes are nowhere near what they used to be so although I'm not expecting there to be any financial damage I can safely say that if it were to occur it wouldn't cripple me.

There won't be any schedule for me to stick to and I'll simply say now that if I feel like blogging then I will, if I feel like giving it a break for a few days then I shall and I'm not sure what direction my posts will take or how to structure them.

Hopefully I can strum up some interest for the right reasons and become successful and or entertaining in the process? (!)

Watch this space.