Tuesday, 24 April 2012

25th April

Good evening,
I thought that both selections yesterday ran respectable races despite drifting like the proverbial barge! Chosen Character ran as if the run was needed and was unfortunate not to finish closer as he was hit in the face by an opponents whip approaching the final furlong, he may have finished closer but he was never going to win but I expect he will come on for the run and win a race in the near future but the price is probably ruined now.
At Windsor Desert Strike was eventually well beaten and we can now probably account that to the ground as he didn't pick up when looking in with a chance, he looked a bit keen and was eventually eased finishing not too far behind. Better ground will suit him next time and a couple lbs drop from the handicapper will do no harm either ;)
As a mental note I have marked yesterday down as money lent to the bookies rather than lost as I hope we can get a win out of one or both of these when the right conditions present themselves over their next couple of runs and more importantly at odds representing value.

Looking at tomorrows cards I have decided to overlook Epsom all together and swerved any bets but at Catterick I will mention Northern Bolt in the 17:50, he is a real soft ground horse and has a very good record at Catterick winning twice and placing from 5 runs with the other two coming when he was unfit returning from a 68 day break or racing over a furlong too far. LTO at Thirsk he ran well to finish 4/15 and even better when you consider he was sluggish at the start and wasn't helped by a poor draw, that was only his second run back and he tends to need at least a couple to show his best after a break. He is dropped in class here to the lowest grade handicap he has been eligible for since his win at Catterick last July. He will need some pace to run at and it looks as though he will get that here with Spirit of Coniston, Blueberry Fizz and Greenhead high having a history for forcing the issue. Everything looks set for a win for Northern Bolt tomorrow and I wouldn't put anyone off having a point on him at 4/1+ but the 3/1 with B365 is too skinny for me so I can't advise it.

Best of luck if you do decide to play tomorrow.

Sunday, 22 April 2012

23rd April

Good evening everyone,
It has been over a week since my last blog post which highlighted a very good winner at 10/1 which happened to drift from the opening price that bet365 had listed the evening before. I hope that some of you were on and at BOG! I'm really pleased with how the last couple of selections have run and how easy it had been to find them. The week just gone looks to have been difficult and although I have been away I've still managed to keep my eye in.
At first I was rather frustrated at a couple of results that I noticed during the week as two of the horses that I have highlighted on the blog previously have scooted home, both at 14/1, they were Fast Shot on Thursday and Veiled Applause yesterday. I had a look at the respective races they won and I definitely would have swerved Fast Shot but perhaps had a play on Veiled Applause but there was no way I was going to look at any racing yesterday so that was always going to be missed from the account!

It seems like a lot of racing services are struggling at the moment and April can be a pretty dodgy month for reasons such as unfit horses and bad weather so I'm quite happy with the way things have panned out from a selfish point of view as I've missed what has looked like a very tough week as weather has played havoc with the cards this week just gone. I'm not too sure why the so called 'professionals' have decided to tip so much recently given the uphill battle they've been dealt but I hope they can all turn it around soon and that you guys who follow these paid for services have not done too much damage to your betting banks.

Anyway, I'm hoping to be back posting regularly again now after my unforeseen absence and hope that I can pick up where I left off starting with tomorrow...

16:45 Pontefract
Chosen Character ran really well without his usual headgear at Catterick last time and shaped as if a return to a mile would suit. Tomorrow he gets a return of the headgear and the mile he looked to need last time, Ricard Kingscote returns to the saddle which is a positive as he has piloted both the horses career wins to date one of which was over C&D. Since his 3yo days he has fell to a more workable mark of 74 after placing from a career high of 82 in a much better race than this at Chester. The ground should be no problem to him as he has form on soft at the aforementioned Chester race and his race last time at Catterick. He is not the most original of selections but he has too much in his favour to overlook I think and is worth a small play.

Chosen Character 0.75pt Win 9/2 B365 (BOG)

Also at Ponte Hidden Glory is one to look out form tomorrow running in the apprentice, as things look to suit this horse tomorrow and he is no doubt well handicapped now but his last few runs have put me off. He won at Nottingham last year in similar circumstances racing off the same mark. If he shows any kind of return to form tomorrow then he will be of interest next time. I hope he travels well but finds little to finish 4th or 5th and then we will get a better price on him next time and the handicapper will help us more ;) It is possible that the return to turf might just do the trick and be enough to revive him tomorrow but I don't fancy chancing it at the current 5/1.

17:55 Windsor
Desert Strike was very unlucky not to finish much closer than his 6/14 last time at the course over a furlong shorter, he dwelt in rear and found some trouble but still made ground and stayed on really well. That race was a 0-85 contest and he is dropped in class to a 0-75 here facing the similar conditions. Daryl Holland has been booked for the ride which is eye catching so I doubt he will be allowed to dwell in the rear again (!) plus the normal fixture of cheek pieces return which haven been present for all his wins so far but missing for the last 3 runs. He is one of only 2 course winners in this field which could matter a great deal tomorrow so I'm not bothered about the racing post comment about him only winning 1 from 30 odd attempts on turf as he has shown a clear liking for the track. The ground will more than likely be soft and I don't have any issue with that really as although he has never been tried on this going he does like it at Wolverhampton which is as close as it gets to soft going really, I think it will play into his hands actually as he tends to stay on well in most of his races and looks set to give a good account again tomorrow with the extra furlong.

Desert Strike 0.5pt EW 10/1 B365 (BOG)

Good luck with any other bets.

Friday, 13 April 2012

14th April

A very good evening everyone,
so it is the eve of the grand national and I'm sure you'll all be inundated with tips for the race over the next few hours but you'll receive non from me here... I often wonder if I'm missing the whole point of  horse racing betting sometimes when I'm looking at uncompetitive races for overweight horses and sand dancers but as long as I can make a profit from doing so I will carry on! They may be less atrctive as a spectacle but as a betting medium I much prefer my chances.

Good luck to anyone with an opinion willing to put their money where there mouth is tomorrow but I'm looking elsewhere to put my hard earned money on!

Folkstone was abandoned after 2 races yesterday so we will never know if I highlighted a couple of winners in my last post and I'm quite glad to be honest, the more I looked at Sherman McCoy the more I liked and I could have actually seen him stealing the race from the front. There was quite a bit of money for him too, there were no prices available to me when I posted but when they did arrive the 14/1 would have tempted me into a play, that soon disappeared and it became a general 7/1 before racing was abandoned so I'll have him on my list to follow and see where he ends up next.

The only turf meeting is at Newcastle tomorrow and I must admit to being quite fond of the course as it is somewhere I have done reasonably well in the past. I was hoping that I could continue that trend but I have found nothing at a price that I would consider value. I expect Folrio Vincitore to run well on his second start for Brian Ellison and it is a positive to see Brin McHugh in the saddle as he has a 25% SR for him. He was an eye catcher last time at Wolverhampton running over the wrong trip and racing off the pace and wide of the rest when finishing well and nearest at the finish but he is a horse who has looked to need headgear in the past, it is missing tomorrow and so I can't make him a bet. When I see the price of 4/1 with B365 I was even happier to overlook him and I think he will drift in the betting. I hope that he travels strongly but finishes just outside the places and that next time they decide to put headgear back on, if they do we will get a price on him and he will be a much better bet but I'll be keeping my powder dry for the time being.

Over at Lingfield then...

17:15 Lingfield
I watched Yankee Storms last run over C&D and in my opinion he was given far too much to do but looked to be travelling stronger than most and his run should be upgraded to better than that of the bare result. He finds himself on a handy mark now 4lbs lower than his last win at Kempton before he joined current trainer Michael Wingham. What stands out for me is the booking of Ryan Moore for this one as on all his starts for Mr Wingham so far he has has 3lb claimer Ryan Clark on board. In those runs he has been without his usual headgear, eased when given too much to do and hampered badly so it is clear to me that they have been trying to get his mark down. They have done that now and booked a good jockey for the ride so tomorrow looks like the day to be on. The only other time in the last 5 years that Ryan Moore has ridden for Michael Wingahm resulted in a win and so I am hoping that tomorrow will add another '1' to that record. Whatever happens I expect him to travel strongly and trade much lower than his SP in running. Only one firm has priced up at the moment so I'd wait until early morning if you can't get on with B365.

Yankee Storm 1.5pt Win 6/1 B365 (BOG)

Good luck with any other bets.

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

12th April

Well I think we can see ourselves as being a little unfortunate there, today was the day for Madam Macie but she simply found one too good on the day. She traded very low in running so I hope someone made some money out of her, I didn't get a chance to watch the race live so I didn't trade any of my bet but the EW terms meant I at least walked away with a little under a points profit which is much better than losing when you pick on out like that! Anyway I'm sure to get a few go in for me over the next few months but today I'll just have ti take on the chin c'est la vie...

Obviously Aintree starts tomorrow but that doesn't interest me as a betting medium, I'll be watching of course but I imagine by betting activity will be very limited at the bar maybe a couple of placepots and a selection or two in the national. I know Andrew (The Value Bettor) is doing another special akin to the one he did for Cheltmas and I wish him luck for that. I won't be about much in the mornings to place bets or read the paper etc so I have decided to give the whole meeting a swerve.

Nothing of real interest for me at Folkstone either due to small fields which scuppers each way betting, of the races I've looked at I think Gilded Age will run well tomorrow if adopting the new tactics that we see last time out, nothing else likes to lead in this race so I see him as the most likely to lead the way and if that happens he will take some pegging back, 9/2 with PP currently may be worht a nibble. The next race looks trappy and initially I was attracted to Sherman McCoy but I'd be amazed if he didn't find at least a couple of these too good as the race is full of potential improvers and could prove to be a pretty hot handicap for the grade over the coming months. The apprentice handicap is a truly very poor contest and I don't fancy anything at all but if pushed I'd say Hubood for Clive Britain going up in trip which looks to suit on breeding.

Good luck with your bets today.

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

11th April

Good evening,
Jack My Boy was backed like defeat was out of the question but we knew our fate before halfway with that one and he is clearly not the force of old and this really was a tame performance. He arguably had good chances to win last year but found always found at least one or two too good and that trend looks to continue now.
The other one Sam Lord unfortunately finished the race lame and I'm not so keen to give up on this one yet. He looks handicapped to win and this maybe was a tricky contest today hence the price but there was some support for him so someone agrees with me out there! I'll keep an eye out for him for sure.

Tomorrow only Catterick interests me, the apprentice handicap is too difficult for me but I quite like Rios Girl who ran well on Monday and also Tagula Breeze is interesting in that last time returning from a 900+ day lay off he was in contention when turning home but faded up the straight which he was entitled to do I think!

Madam Macie has won the twice that she has returned from a break and once was at this track when she was the rag of the race at 66/1, she looks fairly treated based on her 4th over CD on last years final start. I don't think the wide draw is much of an issue as she tends to break well and likes to race up with the pace. David O'Mearas string are going well at present an Graham Gibbons is called upon for his only ride of the day.

14:30 Catterick
Madam Macie 1pt EW 9/1 B365, WH. 8/1 Lads

I may be back in the morning with one more.

Monday, 9 April 2012

10th April

Welcome back to the blog, I’ve had a couple days break from the blog as I’ve been busy doing other things, on days like today when there are 7 meetings I don’t necessarily think that I have missed much in the way of betting opportunities, as funny as that may sound, as the weather has been poor which makes the ground unpredictable which in my opinion is one the of the most important variables to consider in horse racing. Rather I think I have dodged a difficult day, much as the racing entertained today.

I must say thank you to both Andrew (The Value Bettor) and Jason (High Class Equine) for their comments over the last couple of days. I’m not sure how the blog is coming across at the moment so to get some outside perspective on the way things are going is necessary for me to improve on what I’m doing here. I’m sure my writing skills will improve as we go on and it will become possible for people to read into how I’m actually feeling about things, I’m not sure if I’m coming across in the correct way at the minute as maybe, it seems, that I’m rather down on things at the moment. That isn’t true, I’m annoyed at myself yes, but I’m rather optimistic too that over the coming months I will provide some good reading material and most importantly some good profits!

For now I’ll be happy just to keep people interested without doing too much damage to my betting bank!

And so after a very busy couple of days we move on to tomorrow which hosts just the two flat turf meetings, with only a few races of interest rather than a potential host of meetings like today it is rather more manageable and I’ve hopefully found a couple of decent bets for the meetings…

I think Sam Lord showed enough last time to prove that he is worthy of some interest now returning to the flat, now rated at 72 he is 6lbs lower than his last turf win which was the last time he was tried on the surface in 2009. Since then he has been shown some promise over the jumps but has lost his way over the last few months. Timeform have previously noted that he seemed a better horse on the flat which was shown in his consistency, the trip and the ground if it gets soft won’t do him any harm and he should show a good account if building on his recent run at Wolverhampton. I won’t stake too heavily on though as Paddy Aspell has only had 6 winners on turf in the last 5 seasons. His win and place strike rate gets significantly better  when looking at trips normally ran on the other code though so there is some hope at least as it is being ran over 2m 1f ;)

 At 25/1 he is simply too big a price…
15:50 Pontefract
Sam Lord 0.25pt EW 25/1 B365, VCbet

Veiled Applause also runs tomorrow in the 17:25, he looked a good bets last time but it was on a day I missed blogging. He was well backed that day at Doncaster due to his course form and also he is now on a decent mark. Michael O’connell takes over on the saddle tomorrow and he has a decent strike rate for John Quinn and the horse dropped another lb although offset now due to a 3lb jockey allowance rather than the 5 last time. He was returning from a long lay off last time and now with that run under his belt I’d expect to him come on for it, the course is a little bit of a worry though as he has not placed once on his tries here although they were better races than these so there may not be too much to read into that. I don’t fancy tipping him at 5/1 but think he should run well.

I missed out on the price of Jack My Boy at Yarmouth, seems that you have to be very quick nowadays (!) but I still think that at the price there is still some value. He should strip fitter now after returning from a break and look thrown in on old form , I don’t think he deserved to be winless last year as he was just unfortunate to have bumped into a couple of improvers. In 2010 he ran in listed class and also won a grade 2 with an official rating of 93, as I alluded to above he has shown last season that the ability is still there. He is quite versatile on with the going so it shouldn’t be a problem should it turn soft by tomorrow evening. Matthew Cosham is decent value for his 5lb claim and has a good SR for David Evans. Blinkers replace a visor tomorrow too which is a bonus as he has won twice in them, the race doesn't appear to have much pace in so an easy lead is a distinct possibility and I don't think any of them have the ability to pass him should that happen.

16:45 Yarmouth
Jack My Boy 0.75pt EW 13/2 VCbet 6/1 generally

Good luck with any other bets.

Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Thursday 5th

Good evening, it has been a quiet couple of days with only all weather racing on Wednesday and small fields at Folkstone not of much interest to me. Good Friday is anything but in my opinion as there is no racing at all :(

So it appears I will be returning on Saturday morning if I have any bets.

I think it is fair to say that I have not exactly got in to the groove of things as yet but as the days pass and I keep looking and more bets should follow. I have been guilty of trying to force things so far which has seen me pick a few poor bets and if not for the win of Arizona John last week would have been a disaster. The reason for this as briefly mentioned above, in my opinion, is that due to time restraints I have been trying to find bets that are simply not there for the method I use. If you can imagine going through a list of 16 handicappers, spending over an hour on one race alone and then deciding that actually there are too many with a chance with no stand out prices for those you fancy it is easy to see that as time wasted and it can be demoralising. It takes a much stronger character than mine to overlook a race on such occasions! I tend to learn from my mistakes though, there have been far too many to mention over the last couple of weeks but at least they are all fresh in the mind so I can avoid doing the same things again.

I have been through tomorrows card at Folkstone and I couldn't find anything at a suitable price that would interest me for a bet. The ones I was interested in are Drawnfromthepast and Scarlett Rocks in the 15:40 - Drawnfromthepast was successful from a 10lb higher mark at Bath last year and has won 3 of his last 5 races in claimers. I think he is a better horse on turf and also thought that his last run was a better performance than the placings suggest as the winner was allowed an easy lead and Drawnfromthepast given no chance by the way the race shaped despite staying on. I do have a slight doubt as to his suitability for the course though as he doesn't seem to go well on sharp right handed tracks like Folkstone and the 7/2 on offer doesn't whet the appetite much.
Scarlett Rocks is now interesting as he returns to his old trainer. He was claimed from David Evans yard and campaigned on the AW but never really took to it. His turf form is much better and he could be allowed to lead here which would see his IR odds tumble. At 8/1 he makes limited appeal to me returning from a break and I'd rather not guess on her fitness.

Anyway that's all for now, good luck if you're punting and enjoy the break from betting for what it is on Friday :)

Sunday, 1 April 2012

2nd April

Good evening, I think I can be quite happy with the performance today and I got a bit of a bonus with White Diamond finishing in the places too. The most pleasing thing for me though was that each of the first 4 home I gave positive comments about from a handicapping perspective although I wrote one or two off going over this distance.
It is perhaps too taxing doing a summary for each runner like that all the time especially when there are so many runners and even more so if I want to bet in more than one race, what I can do is summarize the runners that catch my eye at first and then whittle it down from there.

I have one race of interest tomorrow at Redcar. At this time of year it is not uncommon to see many horses returning from a long layoff which can make things easier on occasions but leaves you guessing at times too.

Able Master – could be potentially thrown in if back to anything like his best, ran in listed company back in 09 before seeming regressing and has now joined David O’Meara. The trainer has been in decent form recently too so much will depend on any money coming for him. At the price currently I can overlook him as he has looked a problem ride a few times now and has had a habit of blowing the start.

Mr Optimistic – Interesting now dropped back in a more suitable class, he progressed into a decent horse last term but found things difficult in class 2 handicaps but is now just a pound above his last winning mark.  Much will depend on if he has improved for his break which is a possibility as he is only a 4yo. Richard Fahey does well on the turf at the early part of the season.

Hamoody & Arrys Orse – both now trained by David Nicholls who does well with these types, Arrys Orse has failed to live up to expectations but looks on a very tempting mark now. His best effort was at this course since his maiden win at lingfield which earnt him a massive OR. He has worn a tongue tie the last three times but it is missing today which is a worry. He may well have had a breathing problem which may now be fixed but I wouldn’t want to take a short price about him. Hamoody has been off the track for nearly a year, finished 2nd from the same mark in a similar event at this course and now has the break to overcome.

Whozthecat – Only ever won over 5f but a repeat of his 2nd at Newmarket last year from 8lbs higher and a better race than this would make him a leading contender. He has won at the track as a maiden. Consistently frustrating last year though.

Fast Shot - he too is open to improvement, beat a couple of really progressive horses last year in Clockmaker and York glory who are rated much higher  now. Looks a worthy favourite.
16:15 Redcar
Fast Shot 0.5pt EW 13/2 PP, 6/1 Hills, B365, VC
Mr Optimistic 0.25pt EW 8/1 B365, PP