Thursday 22 March 2012

Firday 23rd

Well Compton Spirit didn't run too badly I thought and he looked to be in with a chance a couple of furlongs out when he seemed to make an effort before fading. I'll keep an eye out for him as he is sure to be dropped another couple of pounds for that effort.
There was also a bit of support for Sailing North in the last couple of minutes before the race, he traded quite low in running before fading as tends to happen with those wearing blinkers for the first time, he clearly needs to learn to settle but he travels like a horse with a little ability.

On to tomorrow then, Fridays are a bit of a strange day for me and many others alike. Back in the days when JP's blog was live I think it was he that posted up tipsters results by day of the week and Friday was consistently losing and to this day it is for me too. Logically there is no reason for this to be, especially for me as there is a lot of shit racing on every day of the week which suits me as a betting medium so why the variance compared to other days? I can't answer that but as there are only 52 Fridays in a year I will say that the sample size is relatively low so I'll keep giving Fridays some attention at least ;)

So all weather racing at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and also Dundalk which I'll be giving a swerve. Nothing really appeals at Lingfield either though Baby Strange is looking really well treated nowadays and could run well in the 16:10, he dwelt at the start last time at Southwell and generally when that happens you have no chance there he made some last headway though and should strip fitter for this, I don't really fancy taking a chance on him at 4/1 though.

Mark Johnston seems to do well on the AW on the build up to the flat season so his two runners Vena Amoris in the 14:30 and Colour Guard in the 16:45 might be worthy of some interest but the later is a little short for me at the moment at 2/1.

Byrd In Hand is interesting in that the last time he returned from a break was here at Lingfield when he just got beaten over two furlongs longer than he faces tomorrow, he seems to like it here as he has placed on 3 of the 5 occasions he has visited this track. He isn't exactly thrown in on the weights and is only 1-19 but at 10/1 he may be worth a very small EW bet.

My only bet tomorrow runs in the evening at Wolverhampton at 19:40, Lean Machine has been dropped in class again (!) and this is a very poor event with as you would expect for a race of this class. When looking closely at his form you will notice that when he is rested between 25-40 days before his next run he has placed 4-6 times, couple that with the fact that he has raced off a mark in the last 70s before now on turf and he races 20lbs lower than that mark tomorrow it makes him even more interesting. I know that I can get drawn in to theses types as I can get drawn in to backing regressive horses but as he is only 5 I don't think that the case here. At 10/1 I make him a chance worth taking but make sure you take BOG.

19:40 Wolverhampton
Lean Machine 1pt EW 10/1 B365

5 comments:

  1. Hi Matt

    I have just caught up with your blog and I can honestly say that you have, in my opinion, been trained by two of the shrewdest guys around, so I think that your goals are attainable.

    I will follow with great interest mate.
    GOOD LUCK
    Mark

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Matt

    Lean Machine - Painful 4th by a head mate. Still a great bet in my opinion.

    Mark

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Matt,

    Added you to HCE ''best blog supporters'' list. Thanks for updating HCE to your list. Much appreciated. Will pop by and have a good read as I like you style of analysis.

    Best wishes,
    Jason

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Matt

    Good luck with your blog I have added you to mine, would be great if we could exchange links.

    I am over at http://vikingflasghip.blogspot.co.uk/

    Regards

    ' Playng It Safe '

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you chaps, I've added playing it safe to my list by the way. Cheers for sharing my link.

    ReplyDelete