Saturday, 31 March 2012

Sunday 1st April

Good evening,

So a blank couple of days for no other reason than being too busy to look at the racing or write a blog post and to be honest I’m a little frustrated with my selections which so far have given me no return. Far too early to come to any conclusions around my form really as I’ve only looked at a few races and perhaps I have forced the selections when they should be finding themselves. To try and figure out where I am going wrong I know what I have to do, that is to document on here all my thought processes for a while. What I’ll do is pick a race and then summarize all the runners in it and hopefully come to a conclusion! I know that some of you will read it and think some of my thoughts are overly simplistic but that is sort of the point really, I have a habit of overcomplicating things in my mind and can sometimes miss the obvious, having it all down here to go through again will help me stop making the silly mistakes or pinpoint me some winners so either way it will be an exercise worth doing I think.

I’m rather disappointed that I missed the racing at Doncaster today but I at least get another chance tomorrow! I’ll start by looking at amateur riders handicap in this first race at Donny…

Ladies Best – Been running ok in a couple of lowly selling handicaps hurdles recently without winning, only seen on the flat twice last year over staying distances. Looks regressive to me. Not won over the trip either.

White Diamond – Another that has predominantly run over the jumps in recent times, decent return from a mini break last time at Wolverhampton. Recently joined new yard and possible improvement to come. Won from a higher mark than this in Ireland and 2nd here in a fillies handicap off 5 lbs higher last year.

Jeer -  Won this race last year from a pound higher than today. Normally seen with either a tongue tie or blinkers which are both missing today which is a concern. Looks fairly treated but why no headgear?

Sedgewick – Been off the track for nearly a year but has won and placed from long breaks before now, won from this mark and similar races in the past. Market will probably tell us more but the draw isn’t ideal.

Edgeworth – Looks as though the handicapper is loosening his grip on this one now, ran well the last twice. This trip looks to test him though, of interest if running over 1m-1m2f.

Arizona John – Looks well treated on old form and has dropped to a tempting mark now, this is a drop in class for him and the recent reappearance from a break should see him come on. The yard are doing well at present too. One to keep onside given a strong pace.

Hurakan – Only won in claimers on the all weather, long break to overcome and twice before when trying to do so has ran poorly. This is his first time out for a new trainer who removes the tongue tie that became an ever present last time. Best avoided.

Kodicil – One of the few relatively unexposed types in the field. Much will depend on whether he has improved over the winter. Always ran well when at the front end of the market and a decent amateur has been booked. Positive.

Northern Spy – Can’t work out why they are running him over this far, normally seen at shorter and all best form at far shorter. Beaten in a seller recently when odds on.

Maslak – Looks like he has a lot on his plate at the weights currently. Only real chance is if he gets an easy lead. Otherwise trip and ground are fine.

Lil Ella – Promising recent win in an amateur riders contest at Wolverhampton when making AW debut to spring a surprise at long odds. Could still be well treated, though form in Ireland suggests he needs soft ground and AW win confirms this really. If they all go too fasts she will stand a chance.

Zaplamation – Back on his last winning mark now and last time in a decent hurdle event seemed to suggest that he may be on his way back to form. I’m not sure about this trip for him though, beaten comprehensively each time tried above 1m2f and from lower marks than this too.

Pitkin – Another that has to prove his stamina, barely proved he stayed a mile last time so why are they trying him over this far? This represents a rise in class and he doesn’t look very well treated.

Gallantry – An old favourite of mines! Simply put he is an all weather horse and doesn’t get this far.

Stadium of Light – Has never finished in the top 3 on the turf and only ever won an egg and spoon race at Southwell. Looked to have an attitude problem when last seen and has a long break to overcome too.

Angellena Balerina – Has a habit of starting slowly, not proven over this trip and stamina has been in doubt before now.

Merrjannah – Never won a race, didn’t get home on only try at this trip on the all weather. Showed nothing last time.

There doesn’t appear to be an awful lot of pace in the race with only Maslak and Jeer as confirmed front runners and both are drawn on opposite sides with 17 runners though I can’t see this one being run at a steady pace. The ones that interest me most are Arizona John and White Diamond, the trainer form and jockey booking has me wanting to stake more on AJ but I want to keep WD onside after his recent 2nd place for her trainer, she will be thereabouts if coming on for that run.
13:35 Doncaster
Arizona John 0.5pt EW 7/1 B365 BOG
White Diamond 0.25pt EW 7/1 B365 BOG

Thursday, 29 March 2012

The evening of the 29th

A very good evening, I didn't expect to be back on here today but I have been looking at the Kempton Card and finally found one in the last as follows...

20:55 Kempton
Teen Ager can be another frustrating horse and one that is difficult to win with, the last time he won was when John Fahy was on board an he takes the reins again tonight. His record on the horse reads 1,6,3 which is a darn sight better than Liam Keniry can boast so it looks like he knows how to get a tune out of him.
The race looks like it could go at a decent gallop with Merito, The Which Doctor and Kucharova all liking to push the early pace, if that happens the race is likely to be set up for a finisher which will play right in to Teen Agers hands as a one paced type. He looks in decent form as in his last few runs he has travelled strongly but perhaps been unsuited by the race tactics, he has met trouble in running a couple of occasions and not settling on another occasion. With a strong pace tonight looking likely it should see him settle a little better, but we obviously need some luck if he is not to meet trouble in running! He is just a pound above his lowest mark now which he won from and tonight looks like possibly the best opportunity to catch him on  going day.

Teen Ager 1pt EW 9/1 Hills, Sky, 10/1 VC, Sportingbet, BDOG, 8/1 everywhere else.

Thursday 29th

Good morning, there were no posts or selections yesterday as I was in hospital have an operation. They put me on the 'morning list' but I didn't have the operation until 15:00 and I didn't get home until gone 20:00, swines. That means I missed all of yesterdays racing but I did have a lot of time to think about my previous 2 selections...

Community was a piss poor pick, I don't need people to tell me that and I tend to learn from my mistakes. I don't really have a good defence for it but I see a win a Southwell, a falling OR and first time blinkers in its form. My question was why it had fell so much in the handicap and could it be better than it has shown? A better question would have been why did it achieve a mark of 69 in the first place for winning a maiden? The BHA need better handicappers clearly!!
Anyway I got lead down the garden path on that one.

Bookiesindexboy was better but not that you would have guessed that in my staking, he is a difficult horse to work out as he travels really strongly but consistently finds nothing off the bridle. Horse like him are one paced and generally need a race set up for them, that nearly happened  and he finished a couple necks away from the winner, not a bad run then. I was loathe to put him up EW as I was sure one would get withdrawn to make it a 7 runner race which would pay 2 places. Of course 8 ran and he finished 3rd.
All in all not a very good day but one that I shall learn from.

I've not looked at today's racing so it will be another blank day but I'll be back this evening most likely with something for tomorrow.

Good luck if playing today.

Monday, 26 March 2012

Tuesday 27th

Good evening.
A fair few of you will have been directed here on the back of Graeme' post over at the football analyst blog (which you can find on the right hand side of my page) recommending a read of my new blog over here tonight and for that I thank him.

Now as I outlined in my first ever blog post Graeme was a big part of why a started reading form and has helped me a great deal in helping me being able to make it pay. As he alluded too I had very little if no knowledge of racing before I started out in his forum, I had many reasons to give it a go and the service he provided was second to none in that he gave sound logic to every pick that he sent out to his members and after a few months of just reading his emails I thought I had learnt a lot already. My learning process continued after numerous conversations with the more knowledgeable members in there and I went on to do alright!
That is a long story short.
Anyone who has spent time reading Graeme's blog knows that he is a pretty shrewd chap, he talks a lot of sense and is quite a bit more intelligent than me. What he has done with the football is truly outstanding and when he was tipping horses he was the best I had come across. All I tried to do at first was to imitate him really, simply put he makes the game look easy at times! If I have learnt anything at all from him then this blog will be a success but what I have to make absolutely clear is that I am still learning and I don't want people to expect too much of me or go crazy with staking...
One piece of advice I will give to anyone who wishes to follow with real money is to trade my selections as a vast majority should run well as I'll only tip a horse when it is facing as close to optimum conditions as possible. When I say 'trade' I understand that it will mean a lot of different things to different people but what I mean is just to lay off a bet if and when a horse trades low in running.

I will give myself time to make this tipping business work but if it doesn't then I shall just give up and head back to the drawing board.

Anyway my two selections today...
Land Hawk was backed in to an SP of 7/2 and looked to be in with a big chance when coming in to the home straight, at that point he looked to be going better than anything but it appears that stamina was the issue today and he couldn't quicken and weakened. eventually finishing 5th. The most frustrating thing for me is that the I identified the race that I thought the winner would come from but tipped the wrong one. 10/3 about Prince Blue was too short last night and the SP of 9/2 much more appealing but still not at a price that I would have considered backing at. At least we know a little more about Land Hawk now! Any of his form has to be taken with a pinch of salt as he is now a 24 run maiden but if dropped in trip then he may be worthy of some interest but it would have to be at a price as there are question marks over his attitude.

I was more pleased with the performance of Dear Maurice, yes it is annoying that he only finished a head and a neck outside the places but he ran well above his odds and started at 14/1 SP after I tipped him at 25/1. The one mistake I made with this bet is going in at 0.75pt EW on him. As I suggested last night his fitness was not assured so staking that amount was a bit of an oversight on my part. He will stay on my list to follow over the next few runs as he is entitled to come on now after his return from a break.

So we move on to tomorrows racing at Southwell...

Southwell tends to be a 'horses for courses' track and tends to breed a fair few course specialists. Occasionally you will find horses that only to perform well here and poorly elsewhere, one such case is a horse called Community. She has done little since winning a maiden here in December which earnt her an official rating of 69. She has ran respectably in her runs at this track each time all at fancy prices. The thing that makes her most interesting tomorrow is the application of blinkers. If these have any positive effect then she will run above her odds as she is drawn well and has been eased in the weights markedly since she was sent handicapping, too is the lowest class handicap she has entered. 20/1 looks big.
Community 0.5pt Win 20/1 B365, 18/1 VCbet

I have a theory about Bookiesindexboy in that I think he needs a breakneck pace to perform to anything like his best. He travels so well in most of his races but usually finds nothing off the bridle, the change of tactics last time at kempton didn't help his cause and in the end that race ended up being set up for a finisher. Tomorrow the pace should be fairly strong as both Slatey Hen, Magic Of Rio and Chosen One have all led before now if he can sit in behind  and doesn't end up forcing the pace himself then he can pick these off. There is no doubt that he is a difficult horse to work out but it looks like he might get the race run to suit tomorrow and if it is he is handicapped to win a race like this.
Bookiesindexboy 0.5pt Win 12/1 B365, VCbet

Good luck.

Sunday, 25 March 2012

Monday 26th

Good evening, I trust you have all had a relaxing weekend and the weather would have helped a great deal with that. The clocks have gone forward today which to me signals an important time of the year is looming... the flat turf season is nearly upon us! I can't wait for that. The number of potential angles into a race increases greatly and importantly the fields get larger which makes an each way bet a more viable option :)

It seems there is a little bit of hype surrounding my blog at the moment and it isn't hard to figure out why.
Rowan kindly gave me a rather nice mention on his blog The Portfolio Investor and in his recommendation I was mentioned in the same breath as Andrew over at The Vale Bettor blog. The reason for this is that he was among a few others one of the main teachers I had behind the doors of a closed forum, I learnt a massive deal from him over a few months and went on to do rather well posting picks in there. However what he has accomplished over the winter months is remarkable and I really enjoyed following as I'm sure many of you did but I am simply not in the class that he is in and I'd be over the moon if I could accomplish half of what he has over the coming months.  He is off the radar at the moment as the jumps season has more or less come to an end, but I do hope that he will available for me to still exchange emails with as I can assure you all that I still have plenty to learn! In fact I welcome any readers that I can learn from as I still have the desire to learn and become better at what I do.
Basically what I am saying is don't expect too much from me... yet! I still have to prove myself, this blog will give me a great platform in which to do so. I am quite confident in my ability but I welcome any challenges to my insight as for me that is the best way to improve.

Backing horses successfully obviously requires backing opinions the results of which are measured by profits made and prices achieved for those selections. Now we all have different opinions and my aim is to consistently have good ones and those which might be quite different to those which we read daily in the racing post spotlight section, my selections are always at a price that I consider 'value' and the average price quite a bit higher than some of you may be comfortable backing, so although the winners will come it might take a while and I'd not go crazy with stakes if you do chose to follow me.

Anyway now that I have got that out the way I shall move on to tomorrows racing at Lingfield...

15:15 Lingfield

Land Hawk was beaten favourite over this trip last time out and although strictly he has 1.5 lengths to find with Prince Blue in that race he was unlucky not to have finished closer. If you watched that race you'd have noticed that he was squeezed for room when trying to make a challenge and was eased home in the end not beaten that far, stamina didn't appear to be the issue. Today he is dropped in class but is 5/1 for a contest in which he started 4/1 favourite last time. I think that had he a clear run the order would have been reversed with Prince Blue.
Land Hawk 1pt Win 5/1 B365

16:45 Lingfield

I quite like the look of Dear Maurice in this as he races off a career low mark and has a decent claimer on his back in Noel Garbutt who claims 7lbs, he has won 3 of the 7 races he has ridden at this course. The horse has placed in 6 of the 7 handicaps he has raced off a mark of 75 or less and he gets in here from a mark of 67. He has run well from a break in the past and that was in fact at Lingfield. The other three times he has ran from a break he was going either on the wrong ground or trip. At the price it is worth chancing whether he is fit or not as everything else seems to be in his favour.
Dear Maurice 0.75pt EW 25/1 Lads, PP, 20/1 B365

Good luck.

Friday, 23 March 2012

Good evening folks :)

Before I start I must say a massive thank you for all the support I'm receiving, I didn't expect anywhere near as much traffic as I've received but there again it has all been provided from some of the best blogs out there which obviously must have a vast amount of followers themselves so maybe I shouldn't be too surprised ;)
In particular thanks to Rowan, Mark and Jason for the positive mentions of my blog. I hope I can do the rave reviews justice!

So todays bet, as all good EW bets do it finished 4th. Thank you Friday, had to have another dig didn't you!
I think I can feel slightly aggrieved by not receiving a return on my selection as it was only beaten a head into 4th, he had to switch right a little over a furlong out which undoubtedly cost him ground and momentum but he wouldn't have been good enough to get to the winner away I think. Frustrating to lose anyway as I wasn't far off.

I've got nothing to offer for tomorrows cards really but Tom Dascombe does really well at Lingfield and of all his runners tomorrow I like Junoob running in the winter derby best so I might back him to a small stake in the morning, anyways best of luck for tomorrow and enjoy the weekend whatever you're doing.


Thursday, 22 March 2012

Firday 23rd

Well Compton Spirit didn't run too badly I thought and he looked to be in with a chance a couple of furlongs out when he seemed to make an effort before fading. I'll keep an eye out for him as he is sure to be dropped another couple of pounds for that effort.
There was also a bit of support for Sailing North in the last couple of minutes before the race, he traded quite low in running before fading as tends to happen with those wearing blinkers for the first time, he clearly needs to learn to settle but he travels like a horse with a little ability.

On to tomorrow then, Fridays are a bit of a strange day for me and many others alike. Back in the days when JP's blog was live I think it was he that posted up tipsters results by day of the week and Friday was consistently losing and to this day it is for me too. Logically there is no reason for this to be, especially for me as there is a lot of shit racing on every day of the week which suits me as a betting medium so why the variance compared to other days? I can't answer that but as there are only 52 Fridays in a year I will say that the sample size is relatively low so I'll keep giving Fridays some attention at least ;)

So all weather racing at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and also Dundalk which I'll be giving a swerve. Nothing really appeals at Lingfield either though Baby Strange is looking really well treated nowadays and could run well in the 16:10, he dwelt at the start last time at Southwell and generally when that happens you have no chance there he made some last headway though and should strip fitter for this, I don't really fancy taking a chance on him at 4/1 though.

Mark Johnston seems to do well on the AW on the build up to the flat season so his two runners Vena Amoris in the 14:30 and Colour Guard in the 16:45 might be worthy of some interest but the later is a little short for me at the moment at 2/1.

Byrd In Hand is interesting in that the last time he returned from a break was here at Lingfield when he just got beaten over two furlongs longer than he faces tomorrow, he seems to like it here as he has placed on 3 of the 5 occasions he has visited this track. He isn't exactly thrown in on the weights and is only 1-19 but at 10/1 he may be worth a very small EW bet.

My only bet tomorrow runs in the evening at Wolverhampton at 19:40, Lean Machine has been dropped in class again (!) and this is a very poor event with as you would expect for a race of this class. When looking closely at his form you will notice that when he is rested between 25-40 days before his next run he has placed 4-6 times, couple that with the fact that he has raced off a mark in the last 70s before now on turf and he races 20lbs lower than that mark tomorrow it makes him even more interesting. I know that I can get drawn in to theses types as I can get drawn in to backing regressive horses but as he is only 5 I don't think that the case here. At 10/1 I make him a chance worth taking but make sure you take BOG.

19:40 Wolverhampton
Lean Machine 1pt EW 10/1 B365

Tuesday, 20 March 2012

Wednesday 20th

Ok so I have left it a little while before posting again but this is sort of going to become a diary to me and so it doesn't matter too much as to start with I won't have too many fans anyway!

I have kept my own betting to a minimum since I started this blog and now that the flat is around the corner I expect opportunities to be more and activity on this new blog more too.

A little bit about my selection method tonight and what it involves.

When looking for value it is easier for me to look for a horse very briefly at first and studying further if I find something interesting, that invariably means that I don't spend an awful amount of time looking at any one race as I'm not looking at all the runners in as much depth as the ones that I find interesting, in my opinion it only takes a moment or two to decide whether one is worthy of more attention and thus very easy to put a line through ones chances ;)

Doing things the way I do means that I get a chance to look at more races and hopefully spot more mistakes, it is imperative that I get to look at more than a couple of races a night as it doesn't take long for an early market to adjust.
I use a few methods to narrow down a field to a more manageable level but the main method I use is to look for a pattern in these nags form as they are creatures of habit after all. I do occasionally get it wrong but more often than not you can be confident in your reasoning, as an example it is very rare for a horse to run well after a break if historically it has ran poorly when doing so, although possibly exceptions may be when a horse changes trainer or if a race is really very poor! As I'm generally only interested in all age handicaps most of these horses are exposed so I have a lot of info available to me already and a number of proven methods of how to use. That for me makes it the best betting medium as you leave little to chance whereas in other races you may have to rely more on luck than judgement.

I'll cover more on this each night when I make my selections and how I got there. I won't always be right but I'll hopefully get enough correct to compensate for the losses.

The first race that I have looked at tonight has thrown up a selection that runs tomorrow evening!
The horse in question is Compton Target, yes the race is limited to 3 year olds but when you look at this it was not difficult to find. The horse won at Kempton from a mark of 70 on its handicap debut last year, since then it has gone backwards and now finds itself on a mark of 61 returning from a break and also has a claimer on his back taking away another 7lbs. Providing that the break has done it some good this could run a very decent race and at a working mans price too. Whatever happens tomorrow it will be worth keeping an eye on it especially when a stronger jockey is on board. For me though the price is simply too big for a horse who is well drawn and ridiculously well handicapped so I make it a bet.

17:55 Kempton
Compton Target 0.75pt EW 12/1 B365

Another horse who might be shedding his maiden tag soon is Sailing North who runs in the 20:25 at Kempton tomorrow night, indeed he is drawn well tomorrow night and is wearing blinkers for the first time. I can't see this one attracting much money though so I'll hold off until more bookies have priced up before deciding whether to fire a bet.