Tuesday, 24 April 2012

25th April

Good evening,
I thought that both selections yesterday ran respectable races despite drifting like the proverbial barge! Chosen Character ran as if the run was needed and was unfortunate not to finish closer as he was hit in the face by an opponents whip approaching the final furlong, he may have finished closer but he was never going to win but I expect he will come on for the run and win a race in the near future but the price is probably ruined now.
At Windsor Desert Strike was eventually well beaten and we can now probably account that to the ground as he didn't pick up when looking in with a chance, he looked a bit keen and was eventually eased finishing not too far behind. Better ground will suit him next time and a couple lbs drop from the handicapper will do no harm either ;)
As a mental note I have marked yesterday down as money lent to the bookies rather than lost as I hope we can get a win out of one or both of these when the right conditions present themselves over their next couple of runs and more importantly at odds representing value.

Looking at tomorrows cards I have decided to overlook Epsom all together and swerved any bets but at Catterick I will mention Northern Bolt in the 17:50, he is a real soft ground horse and has a very good record at Catterick winning twice and placing from 5 runs with the other two coming when he was unfit returning from a 68 day break or racing over a furlong too far. LTO at Thirsk he ran well to finish 4/15 and even better when you consider he was sluggish at the start and wasn't helped by a poor draw, that was only his second run back and he tends to need at least a couple to show his best after a break. He is dropped in class here to the lowest grade handicap he has been eligible for since his win at Catterick last July. He will need some pace to run at and it looks as though he will get that here with Spirit of Coniston, Blueberry Fizz and Greenhead high having a history for forcing the issue. Everything looks set for a win for Northern Bolt tomorrow and I wouldn't put anyone off having a point on him at 4/1+ but the 3/1 with B365 is too skinny for me so I can't advise it.

Best of luck if you do decide to play tomorrow.

Sunday, 22 April 2012

23rd April

Good evening everyone,
It has been over a week since my last blog post which highlighted a very good winner at 10/1 which happened to drift from the opening price that bet365 had listed the evening before. I hope that some of you were on and at BOG! I'm really pleased with how the last couple of selections have run and how easy it had been to find them. The week just gone looks to have been difficult and although I have been away I've still managed to keep my eye in.
At first I was rather frustrated at a couple of results that I noticed during the week as two of the horses that I have highlighted on the blog previously have scooted home, both at 14/1, they were Fast Shot on Thursday and Veiled Applause yesterday. I had a look at the respective races they won and I definitely would have swerved Fast Shot but perhaps had a play on Veiled Applause but there was no way I was going to look at any racing yesterday so that was always going to be missed from the account!

It seems like a lot of racing services are struggling at the moment and April can be a pretty dodgy month for reasons such as unfit horses and bad weather so I'm quite happy with the way things have panned out from a selfish point of view as I've missed what has looked like a very tough week as weather has played havoc with the cards this week just gone. I'm not too sure why the so called 'professionals' have decided to tip so much recently given the uphill battle they've been dealt but I hope they can all turn it around soon and that you guys who follow these paid for services have not done too much damage to your betting banks.

Anyway, I'm hoping to be back posting regularly again now after my unforeseen absence and hope that I can pick up where I left off starting with tomorrow...

16:45 Pontefract
Chosen Character ran really well without his usual headgear at Catterick last time and shaped as if a return to a mile would suit. Tomorrow he gets a return of the headgear and the mile he looked to need last time, Ricard Kingscote returns to the saddle which is a positive as he has piloted both the horses career wins to date one of which was over C&D. Since his 3yo days he has fell to a more workable mark of 74 after placing from a career high of 82 in a much better race than this at Chester. The ground should be no problem to him as he has form on soft at the aforementioned Chester race and his race last time at Catterick. He is not the most original of selections but he has too much in his favour to overlook I think and is worth a small play.

Chosen Character 0.75pt Win 9/2 B365 (BOG)

Also at Ponte Hidden Glory is one to look out form tomorrow running in the apprentice, as things look to suit this horse tomorrow and he is no doubt well handicapped now but his last few runs have put me off. He won at Nottingham last year in similar circumstances racing off the same mark. If he shows any kind of return to form tomorrow then he will be of interest next time. I hope he travels well but finds little to finish 4th or 5th and then we will get a better price on him next time and the handicapper will help us more ;) It is possible that the return to turf might just do the trick and be enough to revive him tomorrow but I don't fancy chancing it at the current 5/1.

17:55 Windsor
Desert Strike was very unlucky not to finish much closer than his 6/14 last time at the course over a furlong shorter, he dwelt in rear and found some trouble but still made ground and stayed on really well. That race was a 0-85 contest and he is dropped in class to a 0-75 here facing the similar conditions. Daryl Holland has been booked for the ride which is eye catching so I doubt he will be allowed to dwell in the rear again (!) plus the normal fixture of cheek pieces return which haven been present for all his wins so far but missing for the last 3 runs. He is one of only 2 course winners in this field which could matter a great deal tomorrow so I'm not bothered about the racing post comment about him only winning 1 from 30 odd attempts on turf as he has shown a clear liking for the track. The ground will more than likely be soft and I don't have any issue with that really as although he has never been tried on this going he does like it at Wolverhampton which is as close as it gets to soft going really, I think it will play into his hands actually as he tends to stay on well in most of his races and looks set to give a good account again tomorrow with the extra furlong.

Desert Strike 0.5pt EW 10/1 B365 (BOG)

Good luck with any other bets.

Friday, 13 April 2012

14th April

A very good evening everyone,
so it is the eve of the grand national and I'm sure you'll all be inundated with tips for the race over the next few hours but you'll receive non from me here... I often wonder if I'm missing the whole point of  horse racing betting sometimes when I'm looking at uncompetitive races for overweight horses and sand dancers but as long as I can make a profit from doing so I will carry on! They may be less atrctive as a spectacle but as a betting medium I much prefer my chances.

Good luck to anyone with an opinion willing to put their money where there mouth is tomorrow but I'm looking elsewhere to put my hard earned money on!

Folkstone was abandoned after 2 races yesterday so we will never know if I highlighted a couple of winners in my last post and I'm quite glad to be honest, the more I looked at Sherman McCoy the more I liked and I could have actually seen him stealing the race from the front. There was quite a bit of money for him too, there were no prices available to me when I posted but when they did arrive the 14/1 would have tempted me into a play, that soon disappeared and it became a general 7/1 before racing was abandoned so I'll have him on my list to follow and see where he ends up next.

The only turf meeting is at Newcastle tomorrow and I must admit to being quite fond of the course as it is somewhere I have done reasonably well in the past. I was hoping that I could continue that trend but I have found nothing at a price that I would consider value. I expect Folrio Vincitore to run well on his second start for Brian Ellison and it is a positive to see Brin McHugh in the saddle as he has a 25% SR for him. He was an eye catcher last time at Wolverhampton running over the wrong trip and racing off the pace and wide of the rest when finishing well and nearest at the finish but he is a horse who has looked to need headgear in the past, it is missing tomorrow and so I can't make him a bet. When I see the price of 4/1 with B365 I was even happier to overlook him and I think he will drift in the betting. I hope that he travels strongly but finishes just outside the places and that next time they decide to put headgear back on, if they do we will get a price on him and he will be a much better bet but I'll be keeping my powder dry for the time being.

Over at Lingfield then...

17:15 Lingfield
I watched Yankee Storms last run over C&D and in my opinion he was given far too much to do but looked to be travelling stronger than most and his run should be upgraded to better than that of the bare result. He finds himself on a handy mark now 4lbs lower than his last win at Kempton before he joined current trainer Michael Wingham. What stands out for me is the booking of Ryan Moore for this one as on all his starts for Mr Wingham so far he has has 3lb claimer Ryan Clark on board. In those runs he has been without his usual headgear, eased when given too much to do and hampered badly so it is clear to me that they have been trying to get his mark down. They have done that now and booked a good jockey for the ride so tomorrow looks like the day to be on. The only other time in the last 5 years that Ryan Moore has ridden for Michael Wingahm resulted in a win and so I am hoping that tomorrow will add another '1' to that record. Whatever happens I expect him to travel strongly and trade much lower than his SP in running. Only one firm has priced up at the moment so I'd wait until early morning if you can't get on with B365.

Yankee Storm 1.5pt Win 6/1 B365 (BOG)

Good luck with any other bets.

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

12th April

Well I think we can see ourselves as being a little unfortunate there, today was the day for Madam Macie but she simply found one too good on the day. She traded very low in running so I hope someone made some money out of her, I didn't get a chance to watch the race live so I didn't trade any of my bet but the EW terms meant I at least walked away with a little under a points profit which is much better than losing when you pick on out like that! Anyway I'm sure to get a few go in for me over the next few months but today I'll just have ti take on the chin c'est la vie...

Obviously Aintree starts tomorrow but that doesn't interest me as a betting medium, I'll be watching of course but I imagine by betting activity will be very limited at the bar maybe a couple of placepots and a selection or two in the national. I know Andrew (The Value Bettor) is doing another special akin to the one he did for Cheltmas and I wish him luck for that. I won't be about much in the mornings to place bets or read the paper etc so I have decided to give the whole meeting a swerve.

Nothing of real interest for me at Folkstone either due to small fields which scuppers each way betting, of the races I've looked at I think Gilded Age will run well tomorrow if adopting the new tactics that we see last time out, nothing else likes to lead in this race so I see him as the most likely to lead the way and if that happens he will take some pegging back, 9/2 with PP currently may be worht a nibble. The next race looks trappy and initially I was attracted to Sherman McCoy but I'd be amazed if he didn't find at least a couple of these too good as the race is full of potential improvers and could prove to be a pretty hot handicap for the grade over the coming months. The apprentice handicap is a truly very poor contest and I don't fancy anything at all but if pushed I'd say Hubood for Clive Britain going up in trip which looks to suit on breeding.

Good luck with your bets today.

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

11th April

Good evening,
Jack My Boy was backed like defeat was out of the question but we knew our fate before halfway with that one and he is clearly not the force of old and this really was a tame performance. He arguably had good chances to win last year but found always found at least one or two too good and that trend looks to continue now.
The other one Sam Lord unfortunately finished the race lame and I'm not so keen to give up on this one yet. He looks handicapped to win and this maybe was a tricky contest today hence the price but there was some support for him so someone agrees with me out there! I'll keep an eye out for him for sure.

Tomorrow only Catterick interests me, the apprentice handicap is too difficult for me but I quite like Rios Girl who ran well on Monday and also Tagula Breeze is interesting in that last time returning from a 900+ day lay off he was in contention when turning home but faded up the straight which he was entitled to do I think!

Madam Macie has won the twice that she has returned from a break and once was at this track when she was the rag of the race at 66/1, she looks fairly treated based on her 4th over CD on last years final start. I don't think the wide draw is much of an issue as she tends to break well and likes to race up with the pace. David O'Mearas string are going well at present an Graham Gibbons is called upon for his only ride of the day.

14:30 Catterick
Madam Macie 1pt EW 9/1 B365, WH. 8/1 Lads

I may be back in the morning with one more.

Monday, 9 April 2012

10th April

Welcome back to the blog, I’ve had a couple days break from the blog as I’ve been busy doing other things, on days like today when there are 7 meetings I don’t necessarily think that I have missed much in the way of betting opportunities, as funny as that may sound, as the weather has been poor which makes the ground unpredictable which in my opinion is one the of the most important variables to consider in horse racing. Rather I think I have dodged a difficult day, much as the racing entertained today.

I must say thank you to both Andrew (The Value Bettor) and Jason (High Class Equine) for their comments over the last couple of days. I’m not sure how the blog is coming across at the moment so to get some outside perspective on the way things are going is necessary for me to improve on what I’m doing here. I’m sure my writing skills will improve as we go on and it will become possible for people to read into how I’m actually feeling about things, I’m not sure if I’m coming across in the correct way at the minute as maybe, it seems, that I’m rather down on things at the moment. That isn’t true, I’m annoyed at myself yes, but I’m rather optimistic too that over the coming months I will provide some good reading material and most importantly some good profits!

For now I’ll be happy just to keep people interested without doing too much damage to my betting bank!

And so after a very busy couple of days we move on to tomorrow which hosts just the two flat turf meetings, with only a few races of interest rather than a potential host of meetings like today it is rather more manageable and I’ve hopefully found a couple of decent bets for the meetings…

I think Sam Lord showed enough last time to prove that he is worthy of some interest now returning to the flat, now rated at 72 he is 6lbs lower than his last turf win which was the last time he was tried on the surface in 2009. Since then he has been shown some promise over the jumps but has lost his way over the last few months. Timeform have previously noted that he seemed a better horse on the flat which was shown in his consistency, the trip and the ground if it gets soft won’t do him any harm and he should show a good account if building on his recent run at Wolverhampton. I won’t stake too heavily on though as Paddy Aspell has only had 6 winners on turf in the last 5 seasons. His win and place strike rate gets significantly better  when looking at trips normally ran on the other code though so there is some hope at least as it is being ran over 2m 1f ;)

 At 25/1 he is simply too big a price…
15:50 Pontefract
Sam Lord 0.25pt EW 25/1 B365, VCbet

Veiled Applause also runs tomorrow in the 17:25, he looked a good bets last time but it was on a day I missed blogging. He was well backed that day at Doncaster due to his course form and also he is now on a decent mark. Michael O’connell takes over on the saddle tomorrow and he has a decent strike rate for John Quinn and the horse dropped another lb although offset now due to a 3lb jockey allowance rather than the 5 last time. He was returning from a long lay off last time and now with that run under his belt I’d expect to him come on for it, the course is a little bit of a worry though as he has not placed once on his tries here although they were better races than these so there may not be too much to read into that. I don’t fancy tipping him at 5/1 but think he should run well.

I missed out on the price of Jack My Boy at Yarmouth, seems that you have to be very quick nowadays (!) but I still think that at the price there is still some value. He should strip fitter now after returning from a break and look thrown in on old form , I don’t think he deserved to be winless last year as he was just unfortunate to have bumped into a couple of improvers. In 2010 he ran in listed class and also won a grade 2 with an official rating of 93, as I alluded to above he has shown last season that the ability is still there. He is quite versatile on with the going so it shouldn’t be a problem should it turn soft by tomorrow evening. Matthew Cosham is decent value for his 5lb claim and has a good SR for David Evans. Blinkers replace a visor tomorrow too which is a bonus as he has won twice in them, the race doesn't appear to have much pace in so an easy lead is a distinct possibility and I don't think any of them have the ability to pass him should that happen.

16:45 Yarmouth
Jack My Boy 0.75pt EW 13/2 VCbet 6/1 generally

Good luck with any other bets.

Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Thursday 5th

Good evening, it has been a quiet couple of days with only all weather racing on Wednesday and small fields at Folkstone not of much interest to me. Good Friday is anything but in my opinion as there is no racing at all :(

So it appears I will be returning on Saturday morning if I have any bets.

I think it is fair to say that I have not exactly got in to the groove of things as yet but as the days pass and I keep looking and more bets should follow. I have been guilty of trying to force things so far which has seen me pick a few poor bets and if not for the win of Arizona John last week would have been a disaster. The reason for this as briefly mentioned above, in my opinion, is that due to time restraints I have been trying to find bets that are simply not there for the method I use. If you can imagine going through a list of 16 handicappers, spending over an hour on one race alone and then deciding that actually there are too many with a chance with no stand out prices for those you fancy it is easy to see that as time wasted and it can be demoralising. It takes a much stronger character than mine to overlook a race on such occasions! I tend to learn from my mistakes though, there have been far too many to mention over the last couple of weeks but at least they are all fresh in the mind so I can avoid doing the same things again.

I have been through tomorrows card at Folkstone and I couldn't find anything at a suitable price that would interest me for a bet. The ones I was interested in are Drawnfromthepast and Scarlett Rocks in the 15:40 - Drawnfromthepast was successful from a 10lb higher mark at Bath last year and has won 3 of his last 5 races in claimers. I think he is a better horse on turf and also thought that his last run was a better performance than the placings suggest as the winner was allowed an easy lead and Drawnfromthepast given no chance by the way the race shaped despite staying on. I do have a slight doubt as to his suitability for the course though as he doesn't seem to go well on sharp right handed tracks like Folkstone and the 7/2 on offer doesn't whet the appetite much.
Scarlett Rocks is now interesting as he returns to his old trainer. He was claimed from David Evans yard and campaigned on the AW but never really took to it. His turf form is much better and he could be allowed to lead here which would see his IR odds tumble. At 8/1 he makes limited appeal to me returning from a break and I'd rather not guess on her fitness.

Anyway that's all for now, good luck if you're punting and enjoy the break from betting for what it is on Friday :)

Sunday, 1 April 2012

2nd April

Good evening, I think I can be quite happy with the performance today and I got a bit of a bonus with White Diamond finishing in the places too. The most pleasing thing for me though was that each of the first 4 home I gave positive comments about from a handicapping perspective although I wrote one or two off going over this distance.
It is perhaps too taxing doing a summary for each runner like that all the time especially when there are so many runners and even more so if I want to bet in more than one race, what I can do is summarize the runners that catch my eye at first and then whittle it down from there.

I have one race of interest tomorrow at Redcar. At this time of year it is not uncommon to see many horses returning from a long layoff which can make things easier on occasions but leaves you guessing at times too.

Able Master – could be potentially thrown in if back to anything like his best, ran in listed company back in 09 before seeming regressing and has now joined David O’Meara. The trainer has been in decent form recently too so much will depend on any money coming for him. At the price currently I can overlook him as he has looked a problem ride a few times now and has had a habit of blowing the start.

Mr Optimistic – Interesting now dropped back in a more suitable class, he progressed into a decent horse last term but found things difficult in class 2 handicaps but is now just a pound above his last winning mark.  Much will depend on if he has improved for his break which is a possibility as he is only a 4yo. Richard Fahey does well on the turf at the early part of the season.

Hamoody & Arrys Orse – both now trained by David Nicholls who does well with these types, Arrys Orse has failed to live up to expectations but looks on a very tempting mark now. His best effort was at this course since his maiden win at lingfield which earnt him a massive OR. He has worn a tongue tie the last three times but it is missing today which is a worry. He may well have had a breathing problem which may now be fixed but I wouldn’t want to take a short price about him. Hamoody has been off the track for nearly a year, finished 2nd from the same mark in a similar event at this course and now has the break to overcome.

Whozthecat – Only ever won over 5f but a repeat of his 2nd at Newmarket last year from 8lbs higher and a better race than this would make him a leading contender. He has won at the track as a maiden. Consistently frustrating last year though.

Fast Shot - he too is open to improvement, beat a couple of really progressive horses last year in Clockmaker and York glory who are rated much higher  now. Looks a worthy favourite.
16:15 Redcar
Fast Shot 0.5pt EW 13/2 PP, 6/1 Hills, B365, VC
Mr Optimistic 0.25pt EW 8/1 B365, PP

Saturday, 31 March 2012

Sunday 1st April

Good evening,

So a blank couple of days for no other reason than being too busy to look at the racing or write a blog post and to be honest I’m a little frustrated with my selections which so far have given me no return. Far too early to come to any conclusions around my form really as I’ve only looked at a few races and perhaps I have forced the selections when they should be finding themselves. To try and figure out where I am going wrong I know what I have to do, that is to document on here all my thought processes for a while. What I’ll do is pick a race and then summarize all the runners in it and hopefully come to a conclusion! I know that some of you will read it and think some of my thoughts are overly simplistic but that is sort of the point really, I have a habit of overcomplicating things in my mind and can sometimes miss the obvious, having it all down here to go through again will help me stop making the silly mistakes or pinpoint me some winners so either way it will be an exercise worth doing I think.

I’m rather disappointed that I missed the racing at Doncaster today but I at least get another chance tomorrow! I’ll start by looking at amateur riders handicap in this first race at Donny…

Ladies Best – Been running ok in a couple of lowly selling handicaps hurdles recently without winning, only seen on the flat twice last year over staying distances. Looks regressive to me. Not won over the trip either.

White Diamond – Another that has predominantly run over the jumps in recent times, decent return from a mini break last time at Wolverhampton. Recently joined new yard and possible improvement to come. Won from a higher mark than this in Ireland and 2nd here in a fillies handicap off 5 lbs higher last year.

Jeer -  Won this race last year from a pound higher than today. Normally seen with either a tongue tie or blinkers which are both missing today which is a concern. Looks fairly treated but why no headgear?

Sedgewick – Been off the track for nearly a year but has won and placed from long breaks before now, won from this mark and similar races in the past. Market will probably tell us more but the draw isn’t ideal.

Edgeworth – Looks as though the handicapper is loosening his grip on this one now, ran well the last twice. This trip looks to test him though, of interest if running over 1m-1m2f.

Arizona John – Looks well treated on old form and has dropped to a tempting mark now, this is a drop in class for him and the recent reappearance from a break should see him come on. The yard are doing well at present too. One to keep onside given a strong pace.

Hurakan – Only won in claimers on the all weather, long break to overcome and twice before when trying to do so has ran poorly. This is his first time out for a new trainer who removes the tongue tie that became an ever present last time. Best avoided.

Kodicil – One of the few relatively unexposed types in the field. Much will depend on whether he has improved over the winter. Always ran well when at the front end of the market and a decent amateur has been booked. Positive.

Northern Spy – Can’t work out why they are running him over this far, normally seen at shorter and all best form at far shorter. Beaten in a seller recently when odds on.

Maslak – Looks like he has a lot on his plate at the weights currently. Only real chance is if he gets an easy lead. Otherwise trip and ground are fine.

Lil Ella – Promising recent win in an amateur riders contest at Wolverhampton when making AW debut to spring a surprise at long odds. Could still be well treated, though form in Ireland suggests he needs soft ground and AW win confirms this really. If they all go too fasts she will stand a chance.

Zaplamation – Back on his last winning mark now and last time in a decent hurdle event seemed to suggest that he may be on his way back to form. I’m not sure about this trip for him though, beaten comprehensively each time tried above 1m2f and from lower marks than this too.

Pitkin – Another that has to prove his stamina, barely proved he stayed a mile last time so why are they trying him over this far? This represents a rise in class and he doesn’t look very well treated.

Gallantry – An old favourite of mines! Simply put he is an all weather horse and doesn’t get this far.

Stadium of Light – Has never finished in the top 3 on the turf and only ever won an egg and spoon race at Southwell. Looked to have an attitude problem when last seen and has a long break to overcome too.

Angellena Balerina – Has a habit of starting slowly, not proven over this trip and stamina has been in doubt before now.

Merrjannah – Never won a race, didn’t get home on only try at this trip on the all weather. Showed nothing last time.

There doesn’t appear to be an awful lot of pace in the race with only Maslak and Jeer as confirmed front runners and both are drawn on opposite sides with 17 runners though I can’t see this one being run at a steady pace. The ones that interest me most are Arizona John and White Diamond, the trainer form and jockey booking has me wanting to stake more on AJ but I want to keep WD onside after his recent 2nd place for her trainer, she will be thereabouts if coming on for that run.
13:35 Doncaster
Arizona John 0.5pt EW 7/1 B365 BOG
White Diamond 0.25pt EW 7/1 B365 BOG

Thursday, 29 March 2012

The evening of the 29th

A very good evening, I didn't expect to be back on here today but I have been looking at the Kempton Card and finally found one in the last as follows...

20:55 Kempton
Teen Ager can be another frustrating horse and one that is difficult to win with, the last time he won was when John Fahy was on board an he takes the reins again tonight. His record on the horse reads 1,6,3 which is a darn sight better than Liam Keniry can boast so it looks like he knows how to get a tune out of him.
The race looks like it could go at a decent gallop with Merito, The Which Doctor and Kucharova all liking to push the early pace, if that happens the race is likely to be set up for a finisher which will play right in to Teen Agers hands as a one paced type. He looks in decent form as in his last few runs he has travelled strongly but perhaps been unsuited by the race tactics, he has met trouble in running a couple of occasions and not settling on another occasion. With a strong pace tonight looking likely it should see him settle a little better, but we obviously need some luck if he is not to meet trouble in running! He is just a pound above his lowest mark now which he won from and tonight looks like possibly the best opportunity to catch him on  going day.

Teen Ager 1pt EW 9/1 Hills, Sky, 10/1 VC, Sportingbet, BDOG, 8/1 everywhere else.

Thursday 29th

Good morning, there were no posts or selections yesterday as I was in hospital have an operation. They put me on the 'morning list' but I didn't have the operation until 15:00 and I didn't get home until gone 20:00, swines. That means I missed all of yesterdays racing but I did have a lot of time to think about my previous 2 selections...

Community was a piss poor pick, I don't need people to tell me that and I tend to learn from my mistakes. I don't really have a good defence for it but I see a win a Southwell, a falling OR and first time blinkers in its form. My question was why it had fell so much in the handicap and could it be better than it has shown? A better question would have been why did it achieve a mark of 69 in the first place for winning a maiden? The BHA need better handicappers clearly!!
Anyway I got lead down the garden path on that one.

Bookiesindexboy was better but not that you would have guessed that in my staking, he is a difficult horse to work out as he travels really strongly but consistently finds nothing off the bridle. Horse like him are one paced and generally need a race set up for them, that nearly happened  and he finished a couple necks away from the winner, not a bad run then. I was loathe to put him up EW as I was sure one would get withdrawn to make it a 7 runner race which would pay 2 places. Of course 8 ran and he finished 3rd.
All in all not a very good day but one that I shall learn from.

I've not looked at today's racing so it will be another blank day but I'll be back this evening most likely with something for tomorrow.

Good luck if playing today.

Monday, 26 March 2012

Tuesday 27th

Good evening.
A fair few of you will have been directed here on the back of Graeme' post over at the football analyst blog (which you can find on the right hand side of my page) recommending a read of my new blog over here tonight and for that I thank him.

Now as I outlined in my first ever blog post Graeme was a big part of why a started reading form and has helped me a great deal in helping me being able to make it pay. As he alluded too I had very little if no knowledge of racing before I started out in his forum, I had many reasons to give it a go and the service he provided was second to none in that he gave sound logic to every pick that he sent out to his members and after a few months of just reading his emails I thought I had learnt a lot already. My learning process continued after numerous conversations with the more knowledgeable members in there and I went on to do alright!
That is a long story short.
Anyone who has spent time reading Graeme's blog knows that he is a pretty shrewd chap, he talks a lot of sense and is quite a bit more intelligent than me. What he has done with the football is truly outstanding and when he was tipping horses he was the best I had come across. All I tried to do at first was to imitate him really, simply put he makes the game look easy at times! If I have learnt anything at all from him then this blog will be a success but what I have to make absolutely clear is that I am still learning and I don't want people to expect too much of me or go crazy with staking...
One piece of advice I will give to anyone who wishes to follow with real money is to trade my selections as a vast majority should run well as I'll only tip a horse when it is facing as close to optimum conditions as possible. When I say 'trade' I understand that it will mean a lot of different things to different people but what I mean is just to lay off a bet if and when a horse trades low in running.

I will give myself time to make this tipping business work but if it doesn't then I shall just give up and head back to the drawing board.

Anyway my two selections today...
Land Hawk was backed in to an SP of 7/2 and looked to be in with a big chance when coming in to the home straight, at that point he looked to be going better than anything but it appears that stamina was the issue today and he couldn't quicken and weakened. eventually finishing 5th. The most frustrating thing for me is that the I identified the race that I thought the winner would come from but tipped the wrong one. 10/3 about Prince Blue was too short last night and the SP of 9/2 much more appealing but still not at a price that I would have considered backing at. At least we know a little more about Land Hawk now! Any of his form has to be taken with a pinch of salt as he is now a 24 run maiden but if dropped in trip then he may be worthy of some interest but it would have to be at a price as there are question marks over his attitude.

I was more pleased with the performance of Dear Maurice, yes it is annoying that he only finished a head and a neck outside the places but he ran well above his odds and started at 14/1 SP after I tipped him at 25/1. The one mistake I made with this bet is going in at 0.75pt EW on him. As I suggested last night his fitness was not assured so staking that amount was a bit of an oversight on my part. He will stay on my list to follow over the next few runs as he is entitled to come on now after his return from a break.

So we move on to tomorrows racing at Southwell...

Southwell tends to be a 'horses for courses' track and tends to breed a fair few course specialists. Occasionally you will find horses that only to perform well here and poorly elsewhere, one such case is a horse called Community. She has done little since winning a maiden here in December which earnt her an official rating of 69. She has ran respectably in her runs at this track each time all at fancy prices. The thing that makes her most interesting tomorrow is the application of blinkers. If these have any positive effect then she will run above her odds as she is drawn well and has been eased in the weights markedly since she was sent handicapping, too is the lowest class handicap she has entered. 20/1 looks big.
Community 0.5pt Win 20/1 B365, 18/1 VCbet

I have a theory about Bookiesindexboy in that I think he needs a breakneck pace to perform to anything like his best. He travels so well in most of his races but usually finds nothing off the bridle, the change of tactics last time at kempton didn't help his cause and in the end that race ended up being set up for a finisher. Tomorrow the pace should be fairly strong as both Slatey Hen, Magic Of Rio and Chosen One have all led before now if he can sit in behind  and doesn't end up forcing the pace himself then he can pick these off. There is no doubt that he is a difficult horse to work out but it looks like he might get the race run to suit tomorrow and if it is he is handicapped to win a race like this.
Bookiesindexboy 0.5pt Win 12/1 B365, VCbet

Good luck.

Sunday, 25 March 2012

Monday 26th

Good evening, I trust you have all had a relaxing weekend and the weather would have helped a great deal with that. The clocks have gone forward today which to me signals an important time of the year is looming... the flat turf season is nearly upon us! I can't wait for that. The number of potential angles into a race increases greatly and importantly the fields get larger which makes an each way bet a more viable option :)

It seems there is a little bit of hype surrounding my blog at the moment and it isn't hard to figure out why.
Rowan kindly gave me a rather nice mention on his blog The Portfolio Investor and in his recommendation I was mentioned in the same breath as Andrew over at The Vale Bettor blog. The reason for this is that he was among a few others one of the main teachers I had behind the doors of a closed forum, I learnt a massive deal from him over a few months and went on to do rather well posting picks in there. However what he has accomplished over the winter months is remarkable and I really enjoyed following as I'm sure many of you did but I am simply not in the class that he is in and I'd be over the moon if I could accomplish half of what he has over the coming months.  He is off the radar at the moment as the jumps season has more or less come to an end, but I do hope that he will available for me to still exchange emails with as I can assure you all that I still have plenty to learn! In fact I welcome any readers that I can learn from as I still have the desire to learn and become better at what I do.
Basically what I am saying is don't expect too much from me... yet! I still have to prove myself, this blog will give me a great platform in which to do so. I am quite confident in my ability but I welcome any challenges to my insight as for me that is the best way to improve.

Backing horses successfully obviously requires backing opinions the results of which are measured by profits made and prices achieved for those selections. Now we all have different opinions and my aim is to consistently have good ones and those which might be quite different to those which we read daily in the racing post spotlight section, my selections are always at a price that I consider 'value' and the average price quite a bit higher than some of you may be comfortable backing, so although the winners will come it might take a while and I'd not go crazy with stakes if you do chose to follow me.

Anyway now that I have got that out the way I shall move on to tomorrows racing at Lingfield...

15:15 Lingfield

Land Hawk was beaten favourite over this trip last time out and although strictly he has 1.5 lengths to find with Prince Blue in that race he was unlucky not to have finished closer. If you watched that race you'd have noticed that he was squeezed for room when trying to make a challenge and was eased home in the end not beaten that far, stamina didn't appear to be the issue. Today he is dropped in class but is 5/1 for a contest in which he started 4/1 favourite last time. I think that had he a clear run the order would have been reversed with Prince Blue.
Land Hawk 1pt Win 5/1 B365

16:45 Lingfield

I quite like the look of Dear Maurice in this as he races off a career low mark and has a decent claimer on his back in Noel Garbutt who claims 7lbs, he has won 3 of the 7 races he has ridden at this course. The horse has placed in 6 of the 7 handicaps he has raced off a mark of 75 or less and he gets in here from a mark of 67. He has run well from a break in the past and that was in fact at Lingfield. The other three times he has ran from a break he was going either on the wrong ground or trip. At the price it is worth chancing whether he is fit or not as everything else seems to be in his favour.
Dear Maurice 0.75pt EW 25/1 Lads, PP, 20/1 B365

Good luck.

Friday, 23 March 2012

Good evening folks :)

Before I start I must say a massive thank you for all the support I'm receiving, I didn't expect anywhere near as much traffic as I've received but there again it has all been provided from some of the best blogs out there which obviously must have a vast amount of followers themselves so maybe I shouldn't be too surprised ;)
In particular thanks to Rowan, Mark and Jason for the positive mentions of my blog. I hope I can do the rave reviews justice!

So todays bet, as all good EW bets do it finished 4th. Thank you Friday, had to have another dig didn't you!
I think I can feel slightly aggrieved by not receiving a return on my selection as it was only beaten a head into 4th, he had to switch right a little over a furlong out which undoubtedly cost him ground and momentum but he wouldn't have been good enough to get to the winner away I think. Frustrating to lose anyway as I wasn't far off.

I've got nothing to offer for tomorrows cards really but Tom Dascombe does really well at Lingfield and of all his runners tomorrow I like Junoob running in the winter derby best so I might back him to a small stake in the morning, anyways best of luck for tomorrow and enjoy the weekend whatever you're doing.


Thursday, 22 March 2012

Firday 23rd

Well Compton Spirit didn't run too badly I thought and he looked to be in with a chance a couple of furlongs out when he seemed to make an effort before fading. I'll keep an eye out for him as he is sure to be dropped another couple of pounds for that effort.
There was also a bit of support for Sailing North in the last couple of minutes before the race, he traded quite low in running before fading as tends to happen with those wearing blinkers for the first time, he clearly needs to learn to settle but he travels like a horse with a little ability.

On to tomorrow then, Fridays are a bit of a strange day for me and many others alike. Back in the days when JP's blog was live I think it was he that posted up tipsters results by day of the week and Friday was consistently losing and to this day it is for me too. Logically there is no reason for this to be, especially for me as there is a lot of shit racing on every day of the week which suits me as a betting medium so why the variance compared to other days? I can't answer that but as there are only 52 Fridays in a year I will say that the sample size is relatively low so I'll keep giving Fridays some attention at least ;)

So all weather racing at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and also Dundalk which I'll be giving a swerve. Nothing really appeals at Lingfield either though Baby Strange is looking really well treated nowadays and could run well in the 16:10, he dwelt at the start last time at Southwell and generally when that happens you have no chance there he made some last headway though and should strip fitter for this, I don't really fancy taking a chance on him at 4/1 though.

Mark Johnston seems to do well on the AW on the build up to the flat season so his two runners Vena Amoris in the 14:30 and Colour Guard in the 16:45 might be worthy of some interest but the later is a little short for me at the moment at 2/1.

Byrd In Hand is interesting in that the last time he returned from a break was here at Lingfield when he just got beaten over two furlongs longer than he faces tomorrow, he seems to like it here as he has placed on 3 of the 5 occasions he has visited this track. He isn't exactly thrown in on the weights and is only 1-19 but at 10/1 he may be worth a very small EW bet.

My only bet tomorrow runs in the evening at Wolverhampton at 19:40, Lean Machine has been dropped in class again (!) and this is a very poor event with as you would expect for a race of this class. When looking closely at his form you will notice that when he is rested between 25-40 days before his next run he has placed 4-6 times, couple that with the fact that he has raced off a mark in the last 70s before now on turf and he races 20lbs lower than that mark tomorrow it makes him even more interesting. I know that I can get drawn in to theses types as I can get drawn in to backing regressive horses but as he is only 5 I don't think that the case here. At 10/1 I make him a chance worth taking but make sure you take BOG.

19:40 Wolverhampton
Lean Machine 1pt EW 10/1 B365

Tuesday, 20 March 2012

Wednesday 20th

Ok so I have left it a little while before posting again but this is sort of going to become a diary to me and so it doesn't matter too much as to start with I won't have too many fans anyway!

I have kept my own betting to a minimum since I started this blog and now that the flat is around the corner I expect opportunities to be more and activity on this new blog more too.

A little bit about my selection method tonight and what it involves.

When looking for value it is easier for me to look for a horse very briefly at first and studying further if I find something interesting, that invariably means that I don't spend an awful amount of time looking at any one race as I'm not looking at all the runners in as much depth as the ones that I find interesting, in my opinion it only takes a moment or two to decide whether one is worthy of more attention and thus very easy to put a line through ones chances ;)

Doing things the way I do means that I get a chance to look at more races and hopefully spot more mistakes, it is imperative that I get to look at more than a couple of races a night as it doesn't take long for an early market to adjust.
I use a few methods to narrow down a field to a more manageable level but the main method I use is to look for a pattern in these nags form as they are creatures of habit after all. I do occasionally get it wrong but more often than not you can be confident in your reasoning, as an example it is very rare for a horse to run well after a break if historically it has ran poorly when doing so, although possibly exceptions may be when a horse changes trainer or if a race is really very poor! As I'm generally only interested in all age handicaps most of these horses are exposed so I have a lot of info available to me already and a number of proven methods of how to use. That for me makes it the best betting medium as you leave little to chance whereas in other races you may have to rely more on luck than judgement.

I'll cover more on this each night when I make my selections and how I got there. I won't always be right but I'll hopefully get enough correct to compensate for the losses.

The first race that I have looked at tonight has thrown up a selection that runs tomorrow evening!
The horse in question is Compton Target, yes the race is limited to 3 year olds but when you look at this it was not difficult to find. The horse won at Kempton from a mark of 70 on its handicap debut last year, since then it has gone backwards and now finds itself on a mark of 61 returning from a break and also has a claimer on his back taking away another 7lbs. Providing that the break has done it some good this could run a very decent race and at a working mans price too. Whatever happens tomorrow it will be worth keeping an eye on it especially when a stronger jockey is on board. For me though the price is simply too big for a horse who is well drawn and ridiculously well handicapped so I make it a bet.

17:55 Kempton
Compton Target 0.75pt EW 12/1 B365

Another horse who might be shedding his maiden tag soon is Sailing North who runs in the 20:25 at Kempton tomorrow night, indeed he is drawn well tomorrow night and is wearing blinkers for the first time. I can't see this one attracting much money though so I'll hold off until more bookies have priced up before deciding whether to fire a bet.

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

A new beginning

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to my first ever blog post!

The aim of my blog is to help make people money with free tips on UK horse racing. I've been reading form for a couple of years now and have previously had success posting my picks behind the doors of a closed forum. I know a few bloggers and I love to read daily musing from others so I thought why not add my own to the list and see if I can offer anything new.

I started studying form around 2 years ago after some guidance from fellow bloggers http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/ and http://tvb-earlybird.blogspot.com/2012/01/18th-january-selection-rationale.html.
I have spent a lot of money following tipsters in the past and still follow a couple now and I guess the reason for my interest in the sport like anyone else is for the buzz a gamble gives (losing bets excluded of course) and the failure of others is the reason I decided to study form myself.

In my opinion it makes little sense to spend a heap of money following tipsters when a good form book and a bit of discipline can get you a long way to bettering the results offered by the so called pros. It works out a lot cheaper, adds a sense of achievement if you get anywhere near your goals and the entertainment value from the sport increases ten fold.

So what are my goals?
  • 100 points profit every 6 months
  • to maintain and improve discipline over the course of my blogging and
  • Become a better bettor!
In my posts I plan to give selections and views on the following days racing, I concentrate on all age handicaps mainly on the flat so at this time of year the all weather. I will however offer tips and views on the NH code every now and then although any selections will be in less confidence and shown in my staking.

I won't be able to post every night as time just doesn't allow it, but a few nights a week I'll have an opinion and be sure to post it on here along with selection rationale.

This won't be for everyone as my selections tend to be on horses priced up at prices I feel present value, I won't be in search of winners but they will happen and when they do it'll be at working mans prices!

For those wishing to follow I suggest a 150 point bank as selections will be staked from 1-3 points, I find this best suits my approach. This really represents a 50 point bank based on 50 strong selections, if I manage to bust this then I have no place posting 'tips'. I'm confident this won't happen and pretty sure the profits will accumulate over the coming months. Maybe not the 200 points a year goal I have set myself but whats the point in having a goal if it isn't a big one?!

Anyway I plan to start this properly over the next week or so, wish me luck.